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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-04-01T00:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-04-01T00:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45439/-1
CME Note: Faint CME to the NW observed only in SOHO LASCO C2, as the front dissipates after a few frames. The source is likely AR 14403, with some weak field line movement in SDO AIA 171/193 observed starting around 2026-03-31T23:16Z. Although this source and faint front are not significant or easy to match alone, it matches the signature of prior CME 2026-03-31T11:24Z also from AR 14403, corroborating this source. Likely overtaken/overshadowed by CME: 2026-04-01T23:45Z and may have arrived near 2026-04-02T15:02Z, though the arrival signature was more clearly associated with CME: 2026-04-01T23:45Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-04-03T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45443/1
Model Inputs:
2026-04-01T00:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=12.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=525.0, HalfAngle=10.0, Time21.5=2026-04-01T05:37Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-04-03T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-04-04T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_053700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 59.57 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-04-01T04:26Z

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